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we think we have a good shot at virginia, new hampshire, new mexico, nevada. that's the pathway to victory for john mccain. >> see how all those states were blue? his confident predictions that john mccain was going to win all those states in 2008 were wrong in every single instance. they lost every single one of those states. even though it seemed like he was going to win all of those states the day before the election. he didn't say like he felt they were going to win. he said they have the polling data that showed they were going to win and they did not win in any of those states. this is just part of the way the game is played. it's just bluffing. and that is important context for understanding what's going on in the last four days of the campaign. there are patterns to how presidential elections end. some of the same stuff happens every four years. specifically, in 1992, the republican candidate was poppy bush. he went and campaigned in pennsylvania. and then the next day, he lost pennsylvania. the next election, 1996, bob dole. right before the election,
we think we have a good shot at virginia, new hampshire, new mexico, nevada. that's the pathway to victory for john mccain. >> see how all those states were blue? his confident predictions that john mccain was going to win all those states in 2008 were wrong in every single instance. they lost every single one of those states. even though it seemed like he was going to win all of those states the day before the election. he didn't say like he felt they were going to win. he said they have...
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recovery here across nevada is spotty at best. the best number, though, we have heard while here is that the price of houses has gone up by 1% in the last month. it's the first time that number has risen since 2007. miguel marquez, cnn, las vegas. >>> we'll know after tuesday whether nevada's tough economy becomes a factor in the presidential race. victor? >>> just as nail biting as the presidential election, the balance of power of congress is also one to watch this election season, specifically the senate. right now democrats hold the majority in the senate. but they don't hold it by much. 51 seats to 47 seats for republicans. there are two independents who usually with the democrats. this election 33 seats up for grabs and the democrats are fighting to keep most of them. now, this morning, a look at e the, some of the closely contested races that could tip the scale either way. okay, let's go to, first, massachusetts. with a hotly contested race between republican scott brown and his democratic challenger elizabeth warner. the
recovery here across nevada is spotty at best. the best number, though, we have heard while here is that the price of houses has gone up by 1% in the last month. it's the first time that number has risen since 2007. miguel marquez, cnn, las vegas. >>> we'll know after tuesday whether nevada's tough economy becomes a factor in the presidential race. victor? >>> just as nail biting as the presidential election, the balance of power of congress is also one to watch this election...
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nevada is probably almost gone. and the way that the demographics have shifted in nevada this may be the last election where nevada is really in play for republicans. there's also an interesting thing that happened there on the ground. ron paul supporters sort of took over the republican party in nevada and kind of destroyed it in a way. the groundwork there is really poor for the republican party to the extent that the idaho republican party has actually been sending mail into the state. that's how bad it is. >> so why is mitt romney going to pennsylvania? >> well, i think he's looking at the fact that he can't win in ohio, he's behind there. even his people are sort of acknowledging that that's falling off the map. he has to either win in wisconsin which is also looking very much out of reach. or he has to figure out some other path of pennsylvania. i don't think it's credible but he's trying to do at least a head fake to figure out you some other path to get there. >> jonathan, to you. you might have thought that
nevada is probably almost gone. and the way that the demographics have shifted in nevada this may be the last election where nevada is really in play for republicans. there's also an interesting thing that happened there on the ground. ron paul supporters sort of took over the republican party in nevada and kind of destroyed it in a way. the groundwork there is really poor for the republican party to the extent that the idaho republican party has actually been sending mail into the state....
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nevada the ground game, harry reid's political machine, i think obama is going to win, nevada. >> greta: you are from wisconsin, john, and you were just there. >> i was. everywhere you go you meet people who voted for obama the last time and are going to vote for mitt romney this time around. you have a lot of people switching sides over there. the scott walker recall energized republicans and brought independents into the republican party who liked what scott walker was doing. there are couple of problems facing mitt romney. one is that the recall electorate that gave scott walker a 7 point margin of victory supported obama. there is still a problem there of 500,000 voters who came out in 2008 who didn't come out out in the recall. people think those are obama voters and if they come out that could spell bad news. >> greta: bart star now endorsed governor romney and in wisconsin he is a big deal. does is it have any impact? >> he is a big deal. but president obama had charles woodson the other day. if aaron rodgers had been there on the ground probably a 20 point holdout for mitt romne
nevada the ground game, harry reid's political machine, i think obama is going to win, nevada. >> greta: you are from wisconsin, john, and you were just there. >> i was. everywhere you go you meet people who voted for obama the last time and are going to vote for mitt romney this time around. you have a lot of people switching sides over there. the scott walker recall energized republicans and brought independents into the republican party who liked what scott walker was doing....
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what i heard democrats talk about if they can hold ohio, hold wisconsin, paul ryan's home state, hold nevada, they could lose all other swing states, lose the congressional district in maine and come out with exactly 270 electoral votes. gwen: you add it up that way, john? >> that sounds very powerful. what i am struck by is there hasn't been any mystery about this. if you go further than a year ago, president obama's team was very straightforward. they expected it was going to be mitt romney. they were going to make him very unacceptable. the wealthy and out of touch background. they did that. they had a micro targeted micromessage strategy. they said what they were going to do. and stuck to that strategy seems to be with remarkable discipline. if it works, they look really, really smart. the difference between being really smart and really dumb -- [laughter] >> what's remarkable is that they broadcast that, right? >> and the romney campaign never -- or his allies never came up to say, boy, if they're going to do this we should probably define mitt romney. we better define him positively be
what i heard democrats talk about if they can hold ohio, hold wisconsin, paul ryan's home state, hold nevada, they could lose all other swing states, lose the congressional district in maine and come out with exactly 270 electoral votes. gwen: you add it up that way, john? >> that sounds very powerful. what i am struck by is there hasn't been any mystery about this. if you go further than a year ago, president obama's team was very straightforward. they expected it was going to be mitt...
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ohio, wisconsin, nevada. are we at a point where the only hope for romney there's something wrong in the method oflg these state polls? >> i think we're about at that point opinion he has a couple of days left for him to make a come back. there isn't a single poll, a single nonpartisan poll in ohio, wisconsin or nevada that shows romney in the lead. and, yes, you know the polls have been wrong before and it's conceivable that things can be off. you can ask about sharon engel if polls are right. the overwhelming majority of the time when someone holds a lead of this magnitude, this consistently, they wine up winning. and, you know, there are reasons to think the polls could be off. it's tough to talk to people on cell phones. assumptions about turn out are more important than ever. but, yeah, you're right i think the polls have to be wrong at this state level. >> polls ask who are you going to vote for but there's data around polls who do you think will win and that's extraordinarily predictive. why is that qu
ohio, wisconsin, nevada. are we at a point where the only hope for romney there's something wrong in the method oflg these state polls? >> i think we're about at that point opinion he has a couple of days left for him to make a come back. there isn't a single poll, a single nonpartisan poll in ohio, wisconsin or nevada that shows romney in the lead. and, yes, you know the polls have been wrong before and it's conceivable that things can be off. you can ask about sharon engel if polls are...
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like nevada, like colorado, like florida. so i think they should be very worried when it comes to these battleground states, and even in ohio, where you have 166,000 registered latino voters going out to the polls, and an election this tight, they could absolutely be the deciding factor. i think it's going to be the october surprise of this election. >> i thought we already had one of those. >> early november. >> let me ask you, because we were asking our viewers before the break, if you could run the campaign in the last three days, what would you do if you have the reins of the campaign. if you were in charge of the romney campaign, anna, what would you do at this point? >> i think exactly what they are doing. they're having big rallies. showing a great deal of republican unity. they're showing a great deal of momentum. they've got over a hundred of the top republican surrogates out there fanning around the country, going to the swing states. so you've got to get your base out at this point. pretty mu there are very few und
like nevada, like colorado, like florida. so i think they should be very worried when it comes to these battleground states, and even in ohio, where you have 166,000 registered latino voters going out to the polls, and an election this tight, they could absolutely be the deciding factor. i think it's going to be the october surprise of this election. >> i thought we already had one of those. >> early november. >> let me ask you, because we were asking our viewers before the...
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a woman in nevada facing charges with trying to vote twice. ruben cast her ballot last tuesday in the town of henderson in trying to vote in las vegas again. that is a felony. she is a registered republican and insisting she is innocent. nevada is a key battle ground state with six electorial votes at stake. >> coveted 29 electorial votes. and record turn out that ends today. and reporting wait times bill nelson is asking rick scott to issue an emergency order to extend voting hours through sunday. steve live in a polling station in tampa. and any chances they extend early voting? >> florida's governor will not extend early voting in sunday last people in line 7 o'clock tonight get to vote and there is a few left here in the tampa polling place. lines here one-two hours in the day and some places in miami-dade county, lines at some points in the day between four and five. they have a complicated and long ballot and len constitutional amendments on the ballot and people here being patient and consider their votes here in the key state were impo
a woman in nevada facing charges with trying to vote twice. ruben cast her ballot last tuesday in the town of henderson in trying to vote in las vegas again. that is a felony. she is a registered republican and insisting she is innocent. nevada is a key battle ground state with six electorial votes at stake. >> coveted 29 electorial votes. and record turn out that ends today. and reporting wait times bill nelson is asking rick scott to issue an emergency order to extend voting hours...
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president obama is also maintaining his lead in nevada. in iowa, president obama is still ahead. the national average is closer, but president obama has been on the rise there as well. so early voting has been going on for weeks now. in some states, and there are some interesting numbers on party breakdown of early voters so far. now, most early voters have been identified as democrats in ohio, nevada, iowa, florida, and north carolina according to the associated press. republicans have the edge in colorado. let's turn to bob shrum, professor of public policy at nyu and contributor to the daily beast. great to have you with us tonight. let's leave the names out of it for a moment. obama and romney. let's just take candidate a and candidate b. who would you want to be right now with the numbers playing? >> you would want to be candidate a assuming that's the unmentionable who is the president of the united states. he has a lot of roots to 270 electoral votes. if you look at candidate b, candidate b isn't even going to florida in the next few days. you can interpret that in one of
president obama is also maintaining his lead in nevada. in iowa, president obama is still ahead. the national average is closer, but president obama has been on the rise there as well. so early voting has been going on for weeks now. in some states, and there are some interesting numbers on party breakdown of early voters so far. now, most early voters have been identified as democrats in ohio, nevada, iowa, florida, and north carolina according to the associated press. republicans have the...
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what do you make of colorado, nevada, iowa, new hampshire? >> well, look, the easiest way to look at this is even if you look at the real clear politics average which includes a lot of the goofy quinnipiac poles and marist polls. the republicans are winning, indiana,, north carolina, virginia and florida. in fact, if you take a look at that all of the mccain states plus 30s that they are waning and i do think they are going to win, republicans are going to win all four of these states. is they are at 248. then you look at ohio which i think the early vote numbers are clear indication of of what is going to happen in ohio. that s another 18 electoral votes. and then colorado which is, you know, is in the rcp average just under water, 9/10 of a percent. but that is largely because of a couple of outliar polls that have huge numbers more democrats than republicans. i think we are going to win colorado and that gets you 275. and we are going to pick up out of ohio, new hampshire, nevada or minnesota, pennsylvania or wisconsin we are going to pick
what do you make of colorado, nevada, iowa, new hampshire? >> well, look, the easiest way to look at this is even if you look at the real clear politics average which includes a lot of the goofy quinnipiac poles and marist polls. the republicans are winning, indiana,, north carolina, virginia and florida. in fact, if you take a look at that all of the mccain states plus 30s that they are waning and i do think they are going to win, republicans are going to win all four of these states. is...
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>> i tell you this, the people in states like texas and nevada are hoping to have the tax increase because every rich person in the state is going to continue to move out. i do not think it's going to pass, i think the people of california is going to turn this down. jerry brown, the governor has been pushing this, saying we're going to have to rip through the schools and the police departments if we don't pass this. i do not think it's going to pass, if it does, paul, i think it could be the end of california as an economic dynamo, truly, the small businesses and the wealth producers of that state will move out if they put in place a 13% income tax. >> you know-- go ahead. >> california should look at what happened here in illinois. in 2011, little noi raised corporate taxes, raised income taxes, guess what? in the next two months, unemployment surged and businesses tried to flee the state. a real mess. >> paul: and choice seems to be if you're going to put any pressure on the politicians in sacramento to reform, a lot of businesses, jerry brown has been-- they've been chipping in, they t
>> i tell you this, the people in states like texas and nevada are hoping to have the tax increase because every rich person in the state is going to continue to move out. i do not think it's going to pass, i think the people of california is going to turn this down. jerry brown, the governor has been pushing this, saying we're going to have to rip through the schools and the police departments if we don't pass this. i do not think it's going to pass, if it does, paul, i think it could be...
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not so much in nevada where there are more mexicans. you're right. this idea of focusing on foreign policy rather than on economic policy, not a good play. you saw mitt romney try to do that early on. he was in texas, for instance, early on in this race, and talking about those issues. but, again, in texas, that's a state he is going to win. have i been quite surprised that you haven't seen mitt romney out on the stump with people like susana martinez. he hasn't been out with brian sandoval. >> you've named those names. and to that point the ad i referred to might appeal to cuban americans in florida. but we know he has to extend his reach to the latino community beyond florida. with that said, i don't know what he would present on the table with immigration, but he has allies that are available to him, successful latinos within his own party that he has not reached out to broaden a message of, i don't know, economic recovery or whatever, the american dream story that susana martinez forever offered up at the rnc. >> yeah, very powerful message. >> a
not so much in nevada where there are more mexicans. you're right. this idea of focusing on foreign policy rather than on economic policy, not a good play. you saw mitt romney try to do that early on. he was in texas, for instance, early on in this race, and talking about those issues. but, again, in texas, that's a state he is going to win. have i been quite surprised that you haven't seen mitt romney out on the stump with people like susana martinez. he hasn't been out with brian sandoval....
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we are going to give nevada's other republicans here tonight. the incumbent with a three and a half point lead. he just got over the threshold. democrat shelley berkeley. and five are going to be given in ohio to democratic incumbent brown up to ivan f. points and republican challenger jon mandel. now, the open races, we go first to arizona, and we are giving thiso the republicans. real clear politics is not have average, but led the democrats by six in the latest poll. so for our purposes we are giving it. we will give connecticut democrat chris murphy with a four-point lead on the republican. as you can see, it is a difficult science. we will be following the basic, outside the margin medicare. and in indiana, another question mark. real clear politics does not have an average. the democrat is leading the republican in the latest press be simple, but by only three points, and therefore it remains a question mark. north dakota, we are giving it to the republican. over five and a half lead, close enough to call six on the democrat. and then we g
we are going to give nevada's other republicans here tonight. the incumbent with a three and a half point lead. he just got over the threshold. democrat shelley berkeley. and five are going to be given in ohio to democratic incumbent brown up to ivan f. points and republican challenger jon mandel. now, the open races, we go first to arizona, and we are giving thiso the republicans. real clear politics is not have average, but led the democrats by six in the latest poll. so for our purposes we...
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people in ohio here generally think obama has a slight lead also in wisconsin and iowa and nevada. three of those four would give obama the presidency. so the romney campaign knows they're going to have to answer questions about this on the sunday shows tomorrow and on the final days of the race. they circulated a confidential memo to top republican leaders and surrogates. we got our hands on it. this is what they're saying. they're saying they're putting the obama campaign on defense. quote, mitt romney is up or tied with obama in every key battleground state forcing obama on defense in states he won by double digits in 2008 like wisconsin, iowa, michigan, minnesota, and pennsylvania. with the campaigns even on the ground and in early vote, gop enthusiasm is going to carry romney to victory. they're saying energy is on their side and look where obama is campaigning. the reality here is just because the obama campaign is playing defense that still doesn't mean they're going to lose those states. you can play defense and still win. so this is what the romney campaign is talking abou
people in ohio here generally think obama has a slight lead also in wisconsin and iowa and nevada. three of those four would give obama the presidency. so the romney campaign knows they're going to have to answer questions about this on the sunday shows tomorrow and on the final days of the race. they circulated a confidential memo to top republican leaders and surrogates. we got our hands on it. this is what they're saying. they're saying they're putting the obama campaign on defense. quote,...
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. >> reporter: matters how california looks and how nevada and virginia looks. >> right. >> it is difficult for mitt romney to say this economy is in free fall, it is not. unemployment rate here is pretty darn good, 5.2%, the lowest in the country. the president won by ten points here in the last election, my question for you, sue, why isn't he locking it down? >> you know, we actually feel like we're locking it down, we have been locking it down for two years. >> i think she is selling you something, they are not locking it down. >> reporter: we found plenty of people in iowa who are not convinced. >> we can't sustain itself, you hear these big huge empires, countries are going bankrupt. it will be us. >> reporter: he doesn't think he has plans for the deficit. >> i don't think either side has plans for it. it becomes the lesser of two evils. >> reporter: kevin says he can't plan a 2013 budget and certainly can't hire. >> our customers are just slow. they're just not ordering. >> reporter: he says like him, they're frozen, waiting to see who wins the election and whether we fall off the fi
. >> reporter: matters how california looks and how nevada and virginia looks. >> right. >> it is difficult for mitt romney to say this economy is in free fall, it is not. unemployment rate here is pretty darn good, 5.2%, the lowest in the country. the president won by ten points here in the last election, my question for you, sue, why isn't he locking it down? >> you know, we actually feel like we're locking it down, we have been locking it down for two years. >>...
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let's look at nevada. it has the highest unemployment rate of the so-called tossup states. 11.8%. colorado's much closer to the national average. it's at 8%. the national average is 7.9%. here in iowa, it's lower. florida, much higher, 8.7%. but iowa has one of the lowest jobless rates in the country. it has for some time, 5.2%. they actually have a problem finding workers. let's go back to iowa where mitt romney is speaking. >> i know most of you here have decided who you're voting for in three more days. but you have some neighbors who haven't made up their minds yet. and so i want to make sure that i give you all the arguments you need to make sure that you convince some of them to come vote for our team. paw rye paul ryan and i want to bring real change to america. so some folks are putting aside the demands of daily life and focusing on this campaign. they want to know what the future is going to hold depending on who becomes the next president. who's going to affect their life and their family's life and who is going to affect the country in the way it will make the greatest
let's look at nevada. it has the highest unemployment rate of the so-called tossup states. 11.8%. colorado's much closer to the national average. it's at 8%. the national average is 7.9%. here in iowa, it's lower. florida, much higher, 8.7%. but iowa has one of the lowest jobless rates in the country. it has for some time, 5.2%. they actually have a problem finding workers. let's go back to iowa where mitt romney is speaking. >> i know most of you here have decided who you're voting for...
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you listed all the important states, florida, colorado, nevada. but here in ohio, this is the biggest, the most important of the battleground states. the president was here yesterday, made three stops making two stops here. we'll return here again. and the message that the president keeps hammering away on here is how he pushed for the auto bailout. why is that so important? because so many jobs in ohio are tied to the auto industry. they believe this is a message that resonates with voters here. so we expect for the president to continue pushing that theme as he makes his remarks here in ohio again this morning. we're told there is an overthrow crowd and the president is making some remarks to them. they will be coming out here to speak later on. >> all right. dan, thanks so much. of course, we'll take that event as soon as the president does finish up with the overflow crowd and then making his way into that arena in mentor, ohio. >>> the president's opponent mitt romney is having a very busy final weekend of his own campaigning before the elect
you listed all the important states, florida, colorado, nevada. but here in ohio, this is the biggest, the most important of the battleground states. the president was here yesterday, made three stops making two stops here. we'll return here again. and the message that the president keeps hammering away on here is how he pushed for the auto bailout. why is that so important? because so many jobs in ohio are tied to the auto industry. they believe this is a message that resonates with voters...